Lobsters on the Titanic

Escaping the Pot—and the Illusion of Absolute Truth

We humans crave certainty the way a sailor craves a lighthouse on a fog-bound coast. We scan the horizon for patterns, convinced they’ll reveal what comes next. We worship data, trust logic, and build models that promise to anchor us in truth.

And yet—time and again—history, science, and human nature remind us that the ground beneath what we call “truth” is never as solid as it seems.

Consider the Lobsters Aboard the Titanic

In the lavish kitchens of that doomed ship, the lobsters huddled together in their cramped, saltwater tank. They were certain—absolutely certain—of one thing: they were destined for a pot of boiling water. They whispered nightmarish tales of butter and lemon, of elegant dining halls where chandeliers dripped crystal tears. Their fate, they believed, was sealed by the chef’s cleaver and the cravings of first-class passengers.

So they mourned themselves.

When the great ship shuddered and began to sink, icy water flooded the galley, sloshing around their tank. The lobsters, watching their world tip and groan, were convinced this was simply the prelude to being boiled alive, further proof of their impending doom.

But as the ship listed and the tank cracked, seawater gushed in, sweeping them free. They tumbled through corridors shimmering with silverware, past velvet drapes and gilt mirrors, until at last they spilled out into the vast Atlantic.

The stars blinked cold and silent overhead. The sea closed around them, wild and infinite.

And the lobsters realized, in a flicker of antennae and claw, that their absolute truth had been an illusion.

They were not bound for the pot. They were going home.

Why Our Certainties Often Sink

Here’s why the idea of an infallible predictor of reality remains, even in our high-tech age, a beautiful illusion.

Our Senses Lie to Us—Beautifully

Our brains are master illusionists.

What we see is not raw reality but a curated highlight reel stitched together by neural shortcuts honed over eons of survival.

Optical illusions fool the eye.False memories trick the mind.Deepfake videos fool both, casting doubt on everything from news footage to family moments.

In a world where a realistic AI voice can phone your mother pretending to be you, how confident should we be that our perceptions—or the data derived from them—can predict absolute truth?

Truth Evolves—Sometimes Overnight

History is littered with discarded certainties.

For 1,500 years, the geocentric model reigned supreme until Copernicus dared to flip the universe inside out.

Bloodletting was standard medical practice for centuries before it was exposed as a dangerous superstition.

Just twenty years ago, scientists called the human genome “complete,” only to discover entire sections of previously “junk” DNA buzzing with purpose. (See my novel ChronoSync.)

Each generation imagines itself enlightened, only to become a cautionary tale for the next. What we call truth today may one day be a footnote in the history of future breakthroughs.

When Models Mislead

We love our models—economic, meteorological, epidemiological, or artificial intelligence. But even the best are just elegant guesses.

• Finance: In 2008, Wall Street’s risk models labeled toxic assets “safe.” The world found out otherwise.

• Pandemics: Early COVID projections swung wildly because human behavior refused to stay inside the neat lines of equations.

• AI: Tools like ChatGPT can craft brilliant prose—yet hallucinate facts with a poet’s confidence.

Models simplify complexity. But reality has a way of spilling outside the margins.

Perspective Shapes Every “Fact”

The same event can produce a dozen “truths,” depending on who tells the story.

Two cable networks can cover the same protest and file reports that sound like dispatches from parallel worlds.

Algorithms amplify this fragmentation, feeding each of us tailored narratives until it feels like we’re not just arguing over opinions but living in separate realities altogether.

Chaos Theory and the Butterfly Effect

Chaos theory reminds us how small changes can spark monumental consequences.

A butterfly’s wing flap in Brazil might tip the balance toward a tornado in Texas.A minor coding error can crash global systems in seconds.A single vote can change the course of history.

Even in rule-bound systems like physics, tiny variables can spiral into unpredictability. How, then, can we hope to forecast the human world with absolute certainty?

Truth as a Process, Not a Destination

If history teaches anything, it’s this: truth is not an endpoint. It’s a path we’re constantly re-charting.

The way forward isn’t in clinging to illusions of certainty but in embracing probabilistic thinking, intellectual humility, and the courage to revise our maps as new evidence emerges.

Final Thought

Truth is like the horizon: it looks fixed until you take a few steps closer and watch it recede into the distance.

Our task isn’t to seize absolute certainty—it’s to keep asking better questions, stay curious, and adapt with grace when reality surprises us.

Because in the end, it’s not a certainty that keeps us afloat—it’s our willingness to navigate uncertainty with eyes wide open.

Or, as the lobsters of the Titanic might tell you, sometimes the catastrophe you fear is simply the door back to freedom—and the sea.